The homestretch of the 2026 election is here.
Both parties are jockeying for any advantage that will secure the majority in the House and Senate.
And a top pollster delivered one piece of advice that’s too important for Trump to ignore.
Post-Labor Day Polls Matter
Labor Day is the traditional kickoff of the campaign season.
Summer is over, vacations are done, and Americans can focus back in on the news.
The post-Labor Day period also sees voters deluged with polling data.
RealClearPolitics’s polling aggregator shows Democrats leading Republicans by 8.6% on the generic ballot question for control of Congress.
Democrats also lead in enough Senate races to win the majority if the election were today and the polls held.
The polls have been wrong in the past, but those errors occurred when President Trump was on the ballot, as his supporters are harder to poll.
Harvard/Harris pollster Mark Penn appeared on Fox News and told host Martha MacCallum that the post-Labor Day poll should be taken seriously and that they delivered a clear message to Republicans – it’s time to get in gear and sell the Trump record because the polls show the media’s been effective in fooling Americans into blaming the GOP more than Joe Biden for inflation and the state of the economy.
I think post-Labor Day polls are important because people sit around talking politics during Labor Day, and so they turn out to be hard to reverse,” Penn stated. “So, I think this says, look, Republicans better get going. They’re under severe challenge here. People are concerned about the economy. They’re blaming the Republicans more than the Biden administration. I think the Republicans have got some good messages against some really extreme candidates, but they better get them out there and turn this thing around.”
What the GOP Can Do
When asked how Republicans can turn the polls around, Penn explained that when he advises candidates, he tells them to ignore the topline horserace numbers and pay attention to the trends.
“Well, my advice on numbers is always pretty much the same. Don’t just look at the horse race. Look at what the dynamic’s underneath. Look at the arguments. Look at the momentum that you see there. General election polling has been better, but there have been some whoppers in some of these Senate races in which were off like 10, 20 points. I mean, everybody thought last time Collins would be completely buried, and she turned out victorious,” Penn stated.
Penn reminded viewers that the Michigan Senate and Wisconsin Gubernatorial primaries featured misses where pollsters overestimated the strength of Democrat Socialist candidates by 10 and 20 points so the current polling margins showed winnable races.
“I would read these as close, winnable races on both sides. You better get your turnout out. You better deal with who’s going to be better with the economy because that’s the number one issue. You better deal with who’s more irrational and too far to the left or the right, who’s bringing socialism versus far right? You got to win these arguments,” Penn added.
But if Republicans wanted to win these races, they needed to fire up the Trump base that won’t normally vote for establishment RINOs by doing a better job of selling the Trump record of achievements.
“And will this bring — will, you know, the traditional vote to bring the out party back in result in anything but gridlock? And do the voters understand that? Are they making that clear? These polls say you better get going,” Penn concluded.
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